The question comes up almost verbatim in many first calls: "how much will I make if I put the condo on Airbnb?" And it usually arrives with a number already lodged in the buyer's head, pulled from a developer's brochure or a video that promises 12% or 15% a year without breaking a sweat.
Our honest answer is uncomfortable: that number is almost always gross, and gross does not pay your bills. What decides whether a vacation rental in Playa del Carmen was a good idea is what you keep after everything, not what lands in the platform payout. This guide is the breakdown we run with every client before they sign.
What the data says, and why the sources disagree
Before projecting anything, it helps to look at the market through third-party numbers, not the numbers of whoever wants to sell you the unit.
Per Airbtics (period February 2025 to January 2026), a typical Airbnb in Playa del Carmen averages 57% occupancy, a nightly rate around 1,287 pesos (about 75 US dollars) and annual revenue near 272 thousand pesos, across roughly 8,790 active listings. AirDNA, which tracks a broader sample, reports occupancy around 52% and nightly rates closer to 116 dollars. AirROI, using a different methodology, puts occupancy down in the 35% to 45% range. All are real sources, all measure the same city, and they still do not match.
That wide spread is not sloppiness: it is exactly the point. Each platform counts different things. Some average only the listings that were actually available; others include listings that have sat inactive for months and drag the average down. When someone hands you one round occupancy figure as if it were the truth, that person did not read the fine print.
There is one trend worth taking seriously. Airbtics reports that active listings grew about 16% over the past year while occupancy slipped slightly. Translated: supply is entering faster than demand is growing. That does not mean the market is broken, it means the era of putting any condo on the platform and filling it on autopilot is over. Today the well-located, well-furnished, well-run unit wins, not the average one.
Our read, taking those sources as reference and cross-checking them against what we see in the buildings we represent, is that an average host in Playa del Carmen lands between 45% and 55% annual occupancy once the condo is properly set up and reviewed. The first six to twelve months almost always run below that, while you build history and rating.
From gross revenue to what you actually keep
This is where most pretty projections fall apart. Take the gross annual revenue from the range those sources report. From it you subtract, in order:
- The platform commission on every booking.
- Professional management, if you are not going to operate it yourself: from what we see operating in the area, it runs between 20% and 30% of gross revenue. It is real and it changes the whole calculation.
- The condo maintenance fee, which in developments with a pool, gym and security is not trivial.
- Electricity. In Playa del Carmen the air conditioning runs most of the year and guests do not turn it off when they leave; it is the operating cost buyers most underestimate.
- Annual property tax and the income tax on rental earnings, which is due in Mexico.
- Replacement and wear: an Airbnb burns through furniture, linens and appliances far faster than a long-term home.
- Vacancy and low season, especially September and October.
Once you run all of that through the calculator, in the breakdowns we build for each unit the net tends to land between 25% and 45% of gross revenue, not the 100% the sales projection implies. That result, measured against the property price, is what we call net ROI, and it is several points below the gross yield you will see advertised. The gap between the two is exactly what real operation costs you.
The breakdown we run with every client
The exercise is to force two numbers side by side: the gross yield (annual revenue divided by what the property cost, furnished and ready to operate) and the net yield (the same, but after every cost above). The distance between them tends to surprise the buyer who arrived with the brochure figure in mind.
We do not publish a single ROI number here because it would be dishonest. It depends on the purchase price, the building, whether you operate it or hire management, the season and the year. What we do is sit down with the specific unit you care about and build the real breakdown, line by line, with conservative assumptions, before you sign anything. If a seller hands you one round percentage and will not show where it comes from, that is your red flag.
Seasonality matters more than you think
Playa del Carmen does not earn evenly across the year. High season runs from mid-December to late April, with February the strongest month according to the demand patterns AirDNA and the platforms themselves track. September and October are the softest months. Between May and August the sargassum factor enters, hitting the beach appeal hard some years and passing almost unnoticed in others.
This matters because an honest projection does not average the year as if every month were February. A business plan that only pencils out assuming permanent high season is not a plan, it is a wish. We model the full year, with the good months funding the slow ones.
The most expensive mistake: a building that bans short-term rental
This is the misstep that costs the most money and almost no article mentions it. Not every condo building in Playa del Carmen allows vacation rental. Some internal bylaws ban it outright, others cap it to minimum stays or charge special fees for short-term units. Buying with Airbnb in mind and discovering afterward that your building does not allow it turns your business plan into an expensive second home.
As a local agency we read the condo bylaws before you fall in love with the render. It is a boring document and it is exactly where the investment thesis is won or lost.
Ready-to-operate presale vs. finished unit
Presale usually enters at a better price and with payment plans, but it does not generate a peso until it is delivered, and deliveries slip. A finished unit costs more, though you can put it to work the month you close. Which one fits depends on your horizon and your tolerance for waiting. We cover it in depth in our Riviera Maya presale guide, and if you are comparing markets, is it safe to invest in Tulum? applies the same test to another one.
When we tell a client an Airbnb is not for them
Not every profile fits. If you need stable, predictable income from month one, a traditional long-term rental gives you a lower ceiling but far fewer surprises. If you do not plan to hire management or live nearby, the model gets hard: an unattended Airbnb loses rating and rate fast, and recovering takes months. And if the numbers only pencil out assuming 70% occupancy all year, you already saw above that they do not pencil out.
We would rather tell you this before the purchase than after. At Nimbos we operate as master broker across Playa del Carmen, Tulum and Cozumel, so we see which buildings genuinely perform and which only look good in the render. If you want the real gross and net ROI breakdown on a specific unit, browse our properties or write to us and we will build it with you, on conservative assumptions and with no inflated figures.
If you are also a foreign buyer, start with how buying near the coast works in our fideicomiso guide.